I want to change the replication factor on a running cluster without downtime. Can I do a rolling restart with the following change and expect everything to adjust?
You cannot change the replication factor on a running cluster without a down time.
Making changes to replication factor as suggested by you is theoretically correct, but the state of various partitions could be undetermined in a proper manner and may cause read and write failures. Hence it is not a suggested or supported method presently.
Most of the settings in aerospike can be changed dynamically. However, for static configurations, you will have to restart the node. While most of such changes can be done with rolling restart, some changes require entire cluster restart for a reliable performance/availability.